Analysis

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March 4, 2020

Turkey, Russia, and Washington have compelling reasons to welcome a new ceasefire agreement, however imperfect, but they still need to address the longer-term dangers posed by the Assad regime’s murderously maximalist strategy.

Recent fighting between Turkish and Syrian...

February 11, 2020

Weighty domestic concerns and geopolitical fears will likely keep Erdogan from pushing too hard against the current Russian-Syrian campaign, but the parties may yet broker a temporary deal to carve the province in half. 

Besides sending hundreds of thousands of refugees...

November 14, 2019

The Turkish leader knows that if he cannot restore economic growth at home or stay just out of Russia’s permanent orbit, his political troubles will only increase.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has visited Washington nearly a dozen times as prime minister of Tu...

October 16, 2019

President Donald Trump’s letter to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, urging him not to go after an enemy Kurdish military group in neighboring Syria as U.S. troops depart the war-torn country, indicates that the U.S. president wants to corner his Turkish counterp...

October 11, 2019

The Trump administration is implicitly backing Ankara’s policy imperatives for now, but its approval comes with an imminent expiration date that could arrive even sooner if the operation goes awry.

On October 9, Turkey launched its long-expected military operation into...

September 22, 2019

"Turkey more isolated, more alone, and more exposed to foreign policy threats than it has been for decades if not centuries." Soner Cagaptay, author of a new book on Turkish foreign policy, details the ways in which Recep Tayyip Erdogan represents both a revolution in...

August 7, 2019

Checking the YPG’s ascendance in Syria could bring the PKK back to the negotiating table, ultimately making Turkey more amenable to Kurdish enclaves across the border.

Earlier today, Ankara and Washington agreed to “stand up a joint operations center in Turkey as soon a...

July 22, 2019

When the Pentagon took the unprecedented step of suspending Turkey from America’s flagship F-35 fighter jet project earlier last week in retaliation for Ankara’s decision to purchase the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system, it spoke volumes about the dismal prosp...

July 19, 2019

Turkey's decision to risk a rupture with the United States -- and NATO -- in order to purchase the S-400 missile defense system represents a monumental departure from the country's contentious, centuries-old relationship with Russia. In this video, Beyer Family Fellow...

July 18, 2019

If the PKK is confirmed as the perpetrator, Ankara will almost surely launch retaliation in Iraq or Syria, and Washington will have little choice but to stand aside.

On July 17, a Turkish official and two local civilians were killed by gunmen at a restaurant in the Iraq...

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Soner Cagaptay