Turkey's Stakes in Iraq :: Soner Cagaptay

On January 26, 2003, Soner Cagaptay and Mark Parris addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Mr. Cagaptay's remarks.

Despite what has been reported in the press, money is not the only divisive issue in U.S.-Turkish discussions regarding Iraq. Ankara is also concerned about what will happen in northern Iraq after a war. The coalition-protected Kurdish area created there after the Gulf War bifurcated into two feuding cantons in the early 1990s. This resulted in a political vacuum that the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) took advantage of in order to launch many brutal attacks in Turkey. Thus, northern Iraq has been the source of much headache for Turkey. In some ways, the area represents for the Turks what southern Lebanon does for the Israelis. Ankara is concerned that the current situation will continue after a war in Iraq or, worse yet, that a Kurdish state will be created in northern Iraq, which Turkey would consider a casus belli.

Further complicating the issue is the Turkoman community in northern Iraq, a Turkish-speaking group related to the Turks of Anatolia. The Turkomans constitute 5 to 10 percent of Iraq's population of 23 million, and most of them live in the cities of northern Iraq, especially Kirkuk. Because Kirkuk is near northern Iraq's largest oil fields, Ankara fears that various Kurdish factions covet the city as part of their aspirations toward statehood and may attempt to capture it in the event of a U.S.-led war in Iraq. Turkey is concerned that such a scenario could result in persecution of the Turkomans, for whose welfare the Turks feel deeply responsible. Hence, Ankara has sought reassurance from Washington regarding these issues.

Indeed, Turkey and the United States seem to have moved closer to each other's positions on northern Iraq. Still, why have the negotiations on Iraq in general lasted so long? One reason is the relative inexperience of the Turkish government; most of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) cadres have little or no experience in governance. There may also be trouble within AKP itself. The party has had a difficult time getting the parliament to vote on the matter of U.S. troop deployments, as required by the constitution. When an idealist party comes to power in a democracy, it risks splitting into realist and idealist camps, as happened to the German Greens during the 1990s. AKP's handling of the Iraq issue demonstrates that such a fault line may be forming within the party. The realist faction, represented by many officials throughout the government, wishes to devise policies that serve Turkey's interests. In contrast, the idealist faction, which is especially strong in the parliament, holds to the principle that Turkey should not cooperate in an attack on a Muslim country.

This Special Policy Forum Report was prepared by Ayca Ariyoruk.

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Turkey's Stakes in Iraq