Turkey Goes to the Polls: A Post-Mortem

by Soner Cagaptay
Washington Institute Special Policy Forum
November 7, 2002

http://www.cagaptay.com/649/turkey-goes-to-the-polls-a-post-mortem

On November 4, 2002, Soner Cagaptay, Mark Parris, and Bulent Ali Riza addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Mr. Cagaptay's remarks.

CHP was not represented in Turkey's outgoing parliament, so the electorate could not blame it for the recent difficult years. Nevertheless, the party won less than 20 percent of the vote on Sunday. Given that social-democrat parties have traditionally received around one-third of the vote, CHP's showing can be considered dismal. In fact, CHP's support base shrank leading up to the elections. The party has been relegated to Turkish Thrace and a few coastal provinces along the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas; the rest of the country has turned in favor of AKP.

Why has AKP done so well? Since its inception last year, AKP has promoted itself as a conservative party not in opposition to secularism. Hence, the party attracted many centrist voters who have been appalled by the inefficient and corruption-ridden governments of the 1990s. Moderation has brought AKP to power, and it will keep the party in power. If AKP begins to challenge secularism, the party's majority moderate voters may bolt, punishing AKP for creating tension. Similarly, if AKP's leadership immediately takes on certain pressing issues for the Islamist opposition that are of iconic quality in Turkey (e.g., the wearing of headscarves), and does so without building a consensus, the secularist block could view it as evidence that the party is attempting to take over political Islam. Yet, if AKP handles this sort of delicate situation carefully, it would be a positive test for Turkish democracy.

This Special Policy Forum Report was prepared by Ayca Ariyoruk.

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