Soner Cagaptay
Soner Cagaptay
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Pundicity: Informed Opinion and Review

Latest Articles

Turkey Is in Serious Trouble
The country has seen periods of turmoil before. But this time may be different.

October 6, 2015  •  The Atlantic

I am usually an optimist when it comes to Turkey's future. Indeed, I wrote a whole book about The Rise of Turkey. But these days, I'm worried. The country faces a toxic combination of political polarization, government instability, economic slowdown, and threats of violence—from both inside and outside Turkey—that could soon add up to a catastrophe. The likelihood of that outcomeis increasing amid Russia's bombing raids in Syria in support of its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which threaten to debilitate the moderate rebels and boost the extremists in Syria's civil war, while leaving Turkey to deal with two unruly neighbors: Assad and ISIS.

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Turkey's Snap Elections May Not Change Much

September 28, 2015  •  Policy Watch

As a deeply polarized Turkey approaches the November 1 snap elections, it is unclear whether the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) will recoup any or all of its 20 percent overall drop in support during the June vote, which ended thirteen straight years of single-party rule in the country.

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How the U.S. Military Lost Its Favor for Turkey

September 24, 2015  •  Policy Analysis

When I came to Washington in 2002, the Department of Defense was among Turkey's best friends inside the U.S. government. The Pentagon considered Turkey a staunch ally, and uniformed U.S. personnel had a deep affection for Turkey going back to U.S.-Turkish cooperation in the Cold War, and then in the Balkans in the 1990s.

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Kurds Can Go Their Own Way
Erdogan Faces Upheaval—Here's What He Should do About It

September 22, 2015  •  Foreign Affairs

In the early twentieth century, as the Ottoman Empire was collapsing, what took the Young Turk leaders by surprise was not that the Armenians pursued independence but that the Albanians did. The Young Turks could understand, even if they did not accept, that Christian Armenians would want to break away from the Muslim-ruled empire. But why should Albanians, most of whom were Muslims like the Turks, want to part ways?

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Turkey's Political Uncertainty: Implications of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election

August 19, 2015  •  Research Note


Turkey's Political Uncertainty:Implications of the June 2015 Parliamentary Elections

Soner Cagaptay, with Caitlin Stull and Mark Bhaskar

More than two months have passed since Turkey's June 7 elections, in which the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost a parliamentary majority it had held since 2002. Given the AKP's inability to form a governing coalition, a new vote will likely be called for later this year. Until then, Turkey's future will remain in limbo.

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Books by Soner Cagaptay

Cover of Islam, Secularism, and Nationalism in Modern Turkey


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