Soner Cagaptay
Soner Cagaptay
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Pundicity: Informed Opinion and Review
 

Latest Articles

What Turkey Could Lose and Gain From a Military Operation in Syria

July 2, 2015  •  Policy Analysis

Despite its potential short-term political benefits for the AKP, a ground incursion into northern Syria could pose numerous longer-term threats to Turkey, including renewed Kurdish separatism, economic retaliation by Russia, and armed reprisals by the Assad regime, the PYD, and ISIS.

Recent media reports suggest that Turkey could be preparing a military incursion inside Syria. Specifically, Turkish forces may be aiming to seize a fifty-five-mile-long stretch of territory from Azaz in the west to Jarabulus in the east, establishing a twenty-mile-deep cordon sanitaire against the violence next door and creating a staging ground for pro-Turkey Syrian rebels.

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Farewell President Demirel

June 27, 2015  •  Opinion

Turkey has said farewell to former President S├╝leyman Demirel, who as a figure in Turkish politics since the 1960s, served seven times as the country's prime minister, crowning his political tenure as president between 1993 and 2000. Demirel was the last in a line of visionary center-right Turkish politicians: Pious Muslims who did not wear their religion on their sleeves when it came to politics, especially in foreign policy.

Prime Minister Adnan Menderes set up the center-right pillar of Turkey's political system through the Democrat Party (DP) in the 1950s. The DP took Turkey into NATO in 1952.

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Reading Turkish Tea Leaves: Speaker's Election Will Offer Clues To Political Future

June 26, 2015  •  Policy Watch

The very process of choosing a parliamentary speaker will suggest whether a governing coalition will be formed, and including which parties, or whether Turkey will see early elections.

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Turkey's Political Scene Post-Election (Part 3): The AKP-HDP Option

June 24, 2015  •  Policy Watch

Forming a coalition with the HDP would challenge the AKP's conservative policies at home while improving its ties with Kurds abroad, though it is uncertain whether the armed or political wing of Turkey's Kurdish nationalist movement would benefit most.

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Turkey's Political Scene Post-Election (Part 2): The AKP-MHP Option

June 23, 2015  •  Policy Watch

A coalition with the MHP could result in a socially conservative government that exacerbates rather than resolves the Kurdish problem, potentially impeding U.S.-Turkish efforts against ISIS in Syria.

On June 24, the Turkish parliament will hold its first session since the June 7 elections, in which the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its thirteen-year majority. After electing a speaker, the deputies will disperse until a new government is formed; if this does not occur within forty-five days, the constitution mandates that new parliamentary elections be held.

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Books by Soner Cagaptay

Cover of Islam, Secularism, and Nationalism in Modern Turkey

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