Soner Cagaptay
Soner Cagaptay
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Pundicity: Informed Opinion and Review

Latest Articles

The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Turkey

August 25, 2016

The ongoing influx of Syrians could tilt future elections in Erdogan and the AKP's favor, though the long-term demographic and social repercussions will be felt regardless of political outcomes.

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If tensions increase with the west, Erdogan might find a friend in Putin
The fallout from last week's failed coup in Ankara spells trouble for Nato, Europe and the president's foes

July 23, 2016  •  The Guardian

The recent failed coup attempt in Turkey has not only thrown the country into chaos, but could derail the very fundamentals of the country's foreign policy relations with the US and Europe. In its aftermath, there could be grave consequences for European-US co-operation with Ankara to combat the Islamic State in Syria; more generally, Turkish-European Union ties, including the efforts to work together to stem the flow of Syrian refugees, are now threatened.

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Inside Turkey's Failed Coup: What Happened? Why? What Next?

July 22, 2016  •  The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

For most people who were born in Turkey or study the country, the most difficult image to see during last week's events was Ankara -- a city that had not been attacked or occupied since the fifteenth century -- being bombed by Turks. Ultimately, the July 15 plot proved to be a counterfeit coup. Although it was meant to look like a full-fledged coup carried out by the military's top brass, it was in fact a factional uprising within the military. Only about 20 percent of the country's generals were involved; they hoped to harness enough critical mass among top officers to subsequently mount a full coup, but they lacked widespread support. Their only significant backing came from the air force and gendarmerie -- there was no real support in the army, which comprises 65 percent of the armed forces. In fact, their nefarious plot began to unravel when the commander of the 1st Army went on television and declared, "This is not a coup."

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Erdogan's Final Agenda
Where does Turkey go from here?

July 19, 2016  •  the Atlantic

Recep Tayyip Erdogan could soon become the most powerful Turkish leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who founded modern Turkey, and arguably the most powerful leader "since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire" in 1923, Soner Cagaptay told me.

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Turkey's Troubling Turn
Terrorism and Security After the Attempted Coup

July 19, 2016  •  Foreign Affairs

Before the failed military coup on July 15, Turkey was struggling to recover from a bombing and shoot-out that killed 45 people at Istanbul's Ataturk Airport on June 28. Although the attempted takeover complicates the country's crackdown on terrorism, its security problems began long before this summer's turmoil. The three jihadists who planned the attack had been in Turkey for quite some time, having traveled over 750 miles from Syria, rented an apartment in Istanbul, and then assembled bombs for a month. They did so without raising alarm for a simple reason: Turkey itself is radicalizing and the jihadists blended in.

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Books by Soner Cagaptay

Cover of Islam, Secularism, and Nationalism in Modern Turkey

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